Rhys wrote:
eMGee wrote:
With all those high-level programming ‘object-oriented miracles’ one would need all the AMD64 CPUs that money can buy... What a wonderful market the whole ICT industry is, isn't it?
I think I'm going to give up buying anything new if the last RISC, or otherwise solid *N*X or VMS-capable and proven, architecture should at some point die off...
The following is on a minimal amount of sleep, and may not be entirely coherent.
Honestly, I don't think you need to worry. SPARC and IA64 are both seemingly at death's door, but POWER is going strong, and plenty of new chipmakers (Tilera, for example) are coming into the market. I would not be surprised to see a "RISC Renaissance" in the high end as personal computing becomes increasingly based on thin-client type technologies (like "cloud computing.") All the architectural band-aids in the world can't make x86's disadvantages go away. The really cost-sensitive segments (desktops and laptops, netbooks, etc) are already about as fast as they need to be, and will probably stick with x86 until something better (ARM?) comes along that can run the same software at a reasonable speed. On the other hand, RISC is still the fastest thing around on severs and large-scale workstations, where performance still matters, and I think that will increasingly shift in RISC's favor. x86 just isn't that fast, doesn't comfortably go above about six cores without MCM's, and in general it's I/O and memory bandwidth don't come close to RISC solutions, especially POWER. Nehalem goes a long way toward correcting this, but getting relatively close in performance to the Power6, which is last-gen, really isn't good enough.
I predict RISC workstations will, in fact, come back. I think personal computing processors over the next few years are going to be more architecturally to embedded processors than to workstation/server processors, and that personal computing will always be where Intel and (probably) AMD do the most R&D. This leaves a hole in workstation and server processors that the fast RISC chips have an excellent chance to fill. I don't think that SiCortex was the last attempt at making RISC workstations; I think it was one of the first of the new generation.
What do you mean by "large scale workstation"? IBM seems to have discontinued their framebuffer equipped POWER boxes (though I have trouble figuring out exactly what they sell rapidly, so I could have missed something).
RISC/VLIW (though they really aren't "RISC" anymore - non-x86 or load/store are better terms) are great technologies, but they are likely to only hold onto the high end of "serious computing" and, possibly, the low-end and client (a la Godson/SunRay/etc.). AMD64 is good enough for what most of the midrange server/commercial machines do (as long as you can put up with the lack of serious RAS facilities) and they're CHEAP! Power-wise they're OK, too - RISC uses lots of power in the gigantic caches usually attached. Now that the high-perf IO and interconnects are filtering down (PCIe/SATA with smarts/HyperTransport and its ilk) AMD64 is just good enough to where it's hard to justify the costs of a POWER system or Itanium, especially when you factor in the costs of a serious OS (OpenVMS, HP-UX or AIX) on the hardware. Linux/xBSD are good, but it's hard to find non-x86 software excluding FOSS.
I'd love to see POWER take over, coupled with a rebirth of Alpha, but I'm not sure that's going to happen anytime soon except for the big boxes (and even then Alpha is going to stay dead).